1. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos QB
Manning had zero interceptions thorough the first four weeks of the season, but he's thrown six in the last four. It isn't enough to really hurt his MVP case - his 29 touchdowns are still the most out of all quarterbacks (by eight touchdowns) and he's still on pace to break a whole bunch of records this year. Still, his "regression" has been enough to give other players a sliver of hope, and this race might not be a foregone conclusion after all.
Peyton still has about a 90% chance of winning the MVP award - he could switch bodies with JaMarcus Russell and still have a solid shot at coming out on top. Denver's game against Kansas City (and their elite secondary) on November 17th could be enough to seal the deal if Manning puts on a show, and it could be the game that makes this a real race if he gets picked off a few times.
2. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts QB
Luck has all the x-factors: name value, leadership, meaningful wins over good teams - the only thing standing in his way is relative inexperience (voters might shy away from a second-year player, figuring he'll get his due eventually) and stats that don't jump off the page the way Manning's might.
Luck's other advantage? A cushy second-half schedule that the Colts should be able to breeze through (if they keep their eyes on the prize). The only teams left on the schedule who should give Indy trouble are the Bengals in Week 14 and the Chiefs in Week 16. If the Colts keep rolling and Peyton and the Broncos falter (hey, crazier things have happened), Andrew Luck will find himself at the head of the MVP waiting list.
Even 2 Chainz knows the Colts made the right call in drafting the Stanford product...
[embed]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quiOMYLIOsQ[/embed]
3. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints TE
Drew Brees had one of his worst performances in recent memory against the Jets, and the Saints fell 26-20 as Rex Ryan's defense absolutely handcuffed Brees. The only highlight of the game for New Orleans was Graham, who hauled in two touchdowns in a game for the fourth time this year. Graham hasn't just been the best tight end in football - he's the most dangerous receiver in the game right now, period.
Graham has 10 touchdowns so far on the year, one short of his career high for TDs in a season. The only knock on Graham is the bagel he put up against the New England Patriots - because of that performance (Graham was completely shut down by Aqib Talib), he'll have to absolutely dominate the rest of the season to make up enough ground for a real run at the MVP award.
4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs RB
Look, we get it. Charles hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire like Manning or Luck, but the Chiefs are 9-0. So maybe their schedule hasn't been the most demanding (opponents are a combined 25-47, with only the Cowboys having a record above .500), but winning that many games in a row in the NFL is HARD (Just ask the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Actually, don't - they'll never shut up about it).
Still, a lot of people out there think the MVP should go to the best player on the best team, and Charles has been the most consistent performer on the team with the best record in the league. We'd love to show some love to one of KC's many defensive standouts (Tamba Hali and Eric Berry have been absolutely fantastic), but we won't believe the NFL is ready to give a defensive player the MVP award until it actually happens. So, in the meantime, here's Jamaal Charles, who's had at least 15 carries in all of the Chiefs' games so far this year and currently sits at 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards.
5. Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks CB
Okay, so maybe a defensive player winning the MVP award is unlikely...but if Sherman keeps rolling, he could be the guy who makes it happen. His 2013 season is currently up there with 2009 Darrelle Revis and 2008 Nnamdi Asomugha in "you've gotta be smoking crack if you even THINK about throwing to this guy's side of the field" territory, and he's been the decisive factor in two of Seattle's wins so far this year (Houston and St. Louis) while excelling against every opponent except maybe Indy.
The Sherminator would be the first defensive player to win the award since Muffins O'Bradley in 1937 (okay, it was Lawrence Taylor in 1986, but you get the point - it's been a while). The chances of him actually climbing the list and overtaking Peyton Manning at the top are...well, don't bet on it. Sherman faces two more elite quarterbacks this season - Drew Brees and Colin Kaepernick. For his MVP bid to get serious, he'll have to shut down both of them.
On the verge:
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints QB
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys QB
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions WR
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