Thankfully, the data modelling has been completed by other (much smarter) people. The Evolving Wild project uses some incredibly clever data analysis to project skater contract renewals; we’ve used this to assess the potential costings for the Boston Bruins and where they fit Charlie McAvoy.
Incredibly the Evolving Wild team has been quite accurate so far this free agency. They, for example, projected an eight-year deal at a cap hit of $11.172 million for Artermi Panarin. His eventual deal with the New York Rangers was a seven-year term at $11.642 million. There’s a slight overpay when you compare their projected 7 year cost, but that was always expected to secure Panarin’s signature.