By the time March rolls around each season we know roughly what each team. More than roughly, even, we know their strengths and weaknesses, we know what kind of teams they can beat and what kind can beat them. We can see that Texas will struggle with Abilene Christian, even if we don’t have the guts to pick it.
The season doesn’t start that way. To look back into October (or in this season, November) is to see a different top 25 or different KenPom than the way the season ends. Gonzaga may remain a constant at the top of the polls, but below them everything chops and changes as the season goes along.