This year's Champions League compressed group stage is a pedal-to-the-metal sprint -- three straight midweek contests, two weeks off, then three more midweek affairs. The odds are shifting and swaying constantly, and they will do so again next week. One-third of the way through, let's step back and see what has and hasn't changed, fact-or-fiction style.
Manchester United has helped itself the most so far
FACT. Comparing FiveThirtyEight's Champions League projections from after the draw was made to this week, we find that a few teams have either taken care of business or benefited from others' failure to do the same.