On the pages of Nylon Calculus, Mike Bosetti has created a defense-adjusted three-point percentage metric that compares each player’s shooting from three-point range to the league average based on proximity of nearest defender.
Many players can knock down shots when they’re not guarded, but who hits them when tightly defended? Drawing on NBA.com’s tracking data, Bosetti calculated league average percentages for each of the levels of defensive presence recorded: contested, lightly contested and open. (Tracking data also includes “wide open” but that’s not included in the analysis because that effectively means “undefended.”)
The leaders in total “points above expected” are mostly unsurprising:
- Buddy Heild
- JJ Redick
Bosetti also includes a list of the league leaders in points added per 100 shots and some of the names are a bit more eyebrow raising:
- Joe Harris
Yes, number nine on this list is Bertans, who the Wizards picked up for effectively nothing.