Trying to figure out whether a player will pan out in the transfer portal is an incredibly difficult task. Player performance is based so heavily on the system they’re playing in, who their teammates are, and the level of competition they’re facing. All of those things change when they transfer which makes guesswork extremely volatile.
Last year I wrote a piece trying to determine the best historical comparisons for Great Osobor. A look at what previous big men transfers have done when moving up a level concluded that Osobor would likely see a drop in his numbers and that similar players in the past went from averaging 17.