CDC’s overblown estimate of Ebola outbreak draws criticism

Disease modelers use math to try to provide a more precise picture of a certain situation or to predict how the situation will change, and have become critical in the world of infectious diseases. But the accuracy — or inaccuracy — of such models is increasingly a talking point.

ATLANTA — Last fall, when Martin Meltzer calculated that 1.4 million people might contract Ebola in West Africa, the world paid attention.

This was, he said, a worst-case scenario. But Meltzer is the most famous disease modeler for the nation’s pre-eminent public-health agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). His estimate was promoted at high-level international meetings. It rallied nations to…