The Noon Number: What’re the Odds?

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports1.8 - Percentage likelihood of the Caps not advancing to the Conference Finals at least once in the last ten seasons. In other words, if you ran the Ovechkin Era playoffs 56 times, you’d expect one season in which the Caps fail to ever make the third round... if each series simply went by the odds.

So how’d we get to that number?

Money lines via Sports Odds History were converted to win probabilities (via Covers.com). Where probabilities weren’t available (the yellow cells below), we assigned an admittedly rough 55% likelihood of the Caps winning a series in which they were the home team and a 45% chance in those that opened away from Verizon Center (and in those…