Caps Once Again Defy the Odds, But This Time in the Wrong Way

For years, the Washington Capitals have consistently outperformed the expectations of statistical models, as their goal scoring talent elevated the team above expectations. This season, the models seemed to like the team’s offseason moves, only for the team to be sellers at the trade deadline.HockeyViz’s model gave the Caps a 27% chance to win the Metro division at the start of the season and projected them to finish second in the league behind Tampa Bay. Dom Luszczyszyn’s model for The Athletic was a little more pessimistic, but it still had the Capitals likely to finish third in the division, but with a 71% chance to make the playoffs.

After years of under predicting the team, this year…