You may have heard that the Wake Forest basketball team has an important game tonight @ Clemson. As the marquee bubble game of the night, I decided to try to quantify its importance to our NCAA Tournament chances. To analyze this, I first compiled our remaining win percentage odds from Kenpom. Here is the current breakdown:
@ Clemson: 41%
@ Duke: 23%
Pittsburgh: 79%
Louisville: 36%
@ Virginia Tech: 47%
Next, I assigned NCAA Tournament odds to each of our possible remaining records:
6-12: 1%
7-11: 5%
8-10: 35%
9-9: 75%
10-8: 95%
11-7: 99%
Using a random number generator to simulate our season 1000 times, I was able to combine our current expected win distribution with our projected NCAA Tournament odds.