Using play-by-play data from the past five years, recent recruiting rankings, and a measure of production from returning players, Bill Connelly has projected the S&P+ rating for all 128 FBS teams. Virginia comes in at 68th, good for dead last in the ACC Coastal Division.
Yeah but how much should we trust these fancy math things?
The S&P+ metric proved to be an accurate measure of relative strength last year. Picks based on S&P+ picked against the spread correctly better than 52% in the 2015 regular season. Connelly's straight-up picks accurately chose the winner in 644 of the 829 FBS games in 2015 (77.