[caption id="attachment_771" align="alignright" width="300" caption="The Cavaliers will be looking for their first victory in Tallahassee this weekend. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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Thanks for nothing, UNC. After narrowling escaping with a victory in Lane Stadium last night, Virginia Tech sealed the chance to play Virginia for what could determine the winner of the ACC Coastal Division. Of course, the Virginia Cavaliers need to beat Florida State this Saturday night for the in-state match up to carry such significance. Sound simple, right? Hardly. The Cavaliers have neverwon in Tallahassee, with the Seminoles holding an 8-0 record over Virginia in their home state. Of course, the Wahoos haven't fared much better as a host in Charlottesville - only twice defeating Florida State in 8 attempts. That was then, however, and this is now. The Cavaliers will take the field at Doak on Saturday night riding a 3-game winning streak with the chance to face hated rival Virginia Tech for a place in the ACC Championship game. The Seminoles, on the other hand, entered the season with National Championship aspirations - only to crash and burn early with three straight losses in their first 5 games. The ship has been righted, however, and the Seminoles entered Saturday night riding a 5-game winning streak in which they have outscored their opponents 177-58. In other words, they've been playing like the team many expected to see to start the season. So how does Virginia come away with their first victory in Tallahassee against a resurgent Seminole team? Here are some things to look for...
Productive Ground Attack
[caption id="attachment_772" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Kevin Parks will be looking for his 8th rushing touchdown on the year against the Seminoles. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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Virginia is averaging 187.6 rushing yards per game this season, the second-highest average the Cavaliers have put up in 12 years. Furthermore, junior Perry Jones is only 144 yards away from eclipsing the 1,000 yard rushing mark - something that hasn't been done since Alvin Pearman accomplished the feat in 2004. More importantly, the Cavaliers ability to consistently run the ball has taken pressure off of the shoulders of Virginia's young quarterbacks, withMike Rocco particularly thriving since taking the reigns against Miami nearly a month ago. There's no coincidence that Rocco has only turned the ball over 1 time during Virginia's 3-game winning streak, a streak that has seen the Cavaliers average 197.3 rushing yards per contest. That's the good news. The bad news? Florida State enters Saturday's game with one of the nation's premier rush defenses, giving up only 85 yards per game on the ground - a stat that places them 4th in the country in that category. Their ability to shut down the running game has enabled their defense to effectively guard the pass as well, making them the nation's 5th-ranked overall defense. Virginia is going to have their hands full and then some on Saturday night. If they are unable to get the run game going, it could be a very long night for coach London and the Cavaliers.
No Mistakes
[caption id="attachment_773" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Mike Rocco will need to protect the football against one of the nation's best defenses. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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Mistakes have plagued Virginia this year, with none more damaging than the Cavaliers propensity to turn the ball over - which they have done 22 times this season (which puts them 93rd out of 120 FBS teams....NOT good). The most obvious concern when going up against a fast, aggressive defense like Florida State is the pressure that quarterback Mike Rocco will see. A young quarterback facing heavy blitzes is usually the recipe for disaster - in the form of misguided throws that result in interceptions, or bone-jarring hits that lead to fumbles. It's a given that the Seminoles, who are averaging 3.2 sacks per contest (putting them 4th in the country), will be bringing a ton of pressure on Mike Rocco come Saturday night. Of course, Mike Rocco hasn't been the one turning the ball over lately for the Cavaliers. In fact, over the 3-game winning streak, Rocco has had only 1 of Virginia's 4 turnovers. It's been Virginia's running backs and, more concerning, Virginia's special teams that have done most of the damage over the last month. On Saturday night, Virginia simply cannot afford to put the ball on the ground against FSU. If there is a silver lining, however, it's that the Seminole defense has been fairly average this year when it comes to generating turnovers - with only 16 on the season. Virginia doesn't need to play a 'perfect' game to beat the Seminoles, but they absolutely cannot afford to make it easy for them by handing them the ball.
Defending the Pass
[caption id="attachment_774" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Can Chase Minnifield come up with another big play on Saturday night? Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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Virginia's defense has been markedly improved this year, with the Cavaliers boasting the nation's 26th-ranked defense entering Saturday's contest. That doesn't tell the entire story, however. In fact, Virginia barely cracks the top 50 when it comes to defending the pass. Most concerning in this area has been the Cavaliers propensity to give up big plays through the air, with Virginia allowing 5 different 50+ yard passing plays this year (putting them 93rd in the country in that category. Looking across the line of scrimmage, FSU has been pointing up a lot of points on their opponents this year (34.6 points per game, putting them 23rd in the country) and doing a lot of their damage through the air, where the Seminoles average just over 287 yards per game. As important as it will be for Virginia to establish the run on offense, it is equally important that the Cavalier defense effectively defend the pass - especially when it comes to not giving up the 'big play'. Virginia will not win a shoot out against a team that possesses such a strong defense and the offense is not built to play from behind. They play of Virginia's secondary on Saturday night could be the key to a Cavalier victory.
The Pick
[caption id="attachment_775" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Can the Virginia football program shed yet another monkey off it's back under coach London this weekend? Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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For the Virginia Cavalier football team, it's been a year of progress, a year of surprising success - most importantly, it's been a year in which the program has shed nearly every losing stigma associated with it. First came a breakthrough November win, something that hasn't been seen since the 2007 season. Next came the bowl-clinching sixth victory, something that has also eluded the Cavaliers for 4 years. After 3 straight ACC wins, Virginia now has the chance to end their win-less streak in Tallahassee. For further motivation, a win would pit the Cavaliers against their hated in-state rival for a chance at the ACC title - something the Cavaliers have yet to play for. Need more? Virginia has now grabbed the attention of the national press, with coach London making an appearance on College Gameday and the Saturday night match-up being televised in prime time by ESPN2. It goes without saying that there is a tonat stake for the Cavaliers this weekend. My heart says Virginia continues their improbable run for the ACC Coastal Division crown. My head, well, it's just hoping that the Cavaliers can keep the game close with a national audience looking on. Of course, I felt the same way when the Cavaliers traveled to Miami to take on the Hurricanesunder the lights as well. In the end, however, I think the Seminoles just have too much firepower on both sides of the football for the Cavaliers to overcome - though they'll give it their best shot.
Florida State - 28 Virginia - 17
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