There’s a lot to unpack from last night’s game, so to start, with 6:02 left Vanderbilt led 58-43 and, per Ken Pomeroy’s win probability model, the Commodores had a 98.8 percent chance of winning the game. You’ll recall that Vanderbilt did not win the game.
Obviously, a lot had to go wrong for Vanderbilt to lose. To start with, Arkansas went 14-of-15 at the foul line over the last six minutes of the game. There’s some amount of bad luck in that: the Razorbacks are normally a 75 percent foul shooting team. Of course it didn’t help that Daryl Macon and Dusty Hannahs, both 89 percent foul shooters, took 14 of the foul shots and made 13.