NBA growth is often thought of as linear.
Comments from analysts such as, “He just gets better every year”, or “Wait until he hits his prime”, or “2nd year players are always better” reinforce this idea of steady, year-by-year improvement.
The truth is growth of NBA players is NOT linear. Each season brings it’s own challenges and a players’ career takes many paths with factors of health, team, skill, and personal progression.
Growth is jagged in real-life, with quick turns and drastic oscillations. It’s not until a large sample of work is collected and results are smoothed can you decipher the direction and shape of the growth.