Everybody loves sports predictions. We make predictions before every season, before every game, heck Tony Romo even likes to predict what play will be next. So what if I tell you we have been doing it wrong this whole time?
We try to predict outcomes when we should be trying forecast probabilities. The weatherman doesn’t state if it’s going to rain, they give you the chance of rain. Perhaps we should do the same with our sporting forecast.
This isn’t a new idea. Gamblers have been using probabilistic forecasting since before Pete Rose was gambling on the Reds.