What can the Maple Leafs expect out of a 25th overall pick?

Now that both the Pittsburgh Penguins and the San Jose Sharks are eliminated from the playoffs, we know the final draft position of the Toronto Maple Leafs: 25th overall. Both of those teams finished with fewer points, so they move into place in the draft order ahead of the Leafs.

We know that on average, drafting at 25th is likely to get you someone who will play in the NHL, but it’s very unlikely to get you a star. It can also get you someone who never makes it. There is very little difference between the 25th overall and a second round pick in terms of probability of future value.

While the historical chance of a first-round pick turning into an NHLer is around 80%, that depends on how you…