It’s playoff time, and that means it’s time to talk odds of winning the first round matchups. Some recent research into why humans fail in their perceptions of probabilities poses an interesting answer to this question. It’s long been understood that we are actually pretty bad at probability, and we tend to turn complex problems into on/off answers and then complain when the weather forecast was “wrong”. We are also usually overly concerned with very small probability events, which is one reason why pretending a team that isn’t going to make the playoffs just might, maybe, possibly, if this and that and the other thing happens is a winning formula in sportswriting.
Leafs over Habs by how much?
