Let me tell you a story about a Finnish prospect who entered his draft season in the conversation for first overall. He was a center prospect, had a later birthday making him one of the older prospects in the draft, and had already played a chunk of the previous season in the Liiga — Finland’s pro league.
But in his draft year he struggled. He only produced 6 points in 35 games, and was even bumped down to the U20 junior level for a period to get his head on straight. He was left off of Finland’s World Junior roster, and after being in the early conversation for first overall his draft rankings slipped, and slipped, and on draft day he fell all the way to 52nd overall — well below even where his final rankings had him.