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Blue Jays: Calculating the Probability of a Postseason Appearance

When Alex Anthopolous inherited the team, the Jays farm system was in disarray. They had talent on the roster, but just not enough to push them to the post-season in AA’s early years with the team. During his tenure, AA built up the prospect pool, developed a top-5 farm system, and made a flurry of trades to bring the Jays back to the postseason in 2015. The excitement in the city was palpable. AA utilized his prospect capital to acquire the talent necessary to create a window of opportunity. That window predictably shut at the end of 2016. Anyone following closely knew tough times were ahead.