The birth of various playoff scenario generators signal winter for some of us more accurately than hot chocolate and bearded gift-slingers. Like Christmas itself, playoff time truly is a period of both wild optimism and cold reality packaged neatly together (you’re not getting the Nintendo Switch this year, are you?).
Only four teams are truly and completely finished. According to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL season prediction model, the Jets (3–8), Texans (2–9), Jaguars (2–9) and Lions (0-10-1) have less than a 1% chance of reaching the postseason.
The Bears (4–7) and Seahawks (3–8) have a less than 2% chance of making the playoffs, so we’ll consider them similarly—but not completely hopelessly—out of tournament contention.