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NFL teams are taking 4th-down risks more than ever — but still not often enough

The Analytics Hero of the NFL’s opening week very easily could have been a goat. Late in the third quarter on an afternoon full of hope in Cincinnati, the Bengals faced a fourth-and-1 from their 30-yard line, leading 21-7. And Zac Taylor, their 38-year-old head coach, faced a decision that 10 years ago would have been a no-brainer. Any rational coach would have punted. No sensible fan or pundit would have questioned him.

But Taylor coaches in the 2021 NFL, a league that is, slowly but surely, being remodeled by nerds. So he didn’t punt. He went for it.