The NFL is unpredictable.
It’s highly competitive and the gap between the best and worst teams isn’t huge. An argument can be made that the Pittsburgh Steelers are the best team in the NFL and the Dallas Cowboys are the worst, and the point spread for Steelers vs. Cowboys this week is only 13.5 points. In college football, two-touchdown spreads — or more — are a way of life.
Yet, this NFL season has reached peak unpredictability in at least one measure. Underdogs are covering the spread at a remarkable rate. After underdogs went 10-4 against the spread in Week 8, with seven dogs winning outright, underdogs’ record against the spread this season improved to 68-51 (57%).