Forecasting the NCAA men's basketball tournament has been, and will always be, a semi-hopeless pursuit. Perfect brackets don't exist. Even the most educated picks can ultimately look silly. The unpredictability is, of course, what gives March Madness the second half of its name.
But unpredictable does not mean random. Difficult does not mean impossible. Some outcomes — some Final Four runs, some upsets — are more likely than others. Which is why we write this article year after year, hoping to identify teams who'll be overseeded and therefore vulnerable — because sometimes, we're right.