Unlike the made-for-television drafts in the N.B.A. and the N.F.L., there is still some mystery that surrounds Major League Baseball’s draft despite this being the 50th anniversary of the event. So when Rob Manfred, M.L.B.’s commissioner, walks to the dais Monday night to announce who the Arizona Diamondbacks have taken with the No. 1 pick, the selection will be a surprise to nearly everyone other than Manfred, the team and the player selected.
Among the complicating factors are that the format is relatively new (the draft was conducted by conference call until 2009), the players have had far less news media exposure than their counterparts in the other major sports, and teams occasionally choose a player who is not the consensus top talent because strategically they would rather distribute their assigned bonus pool to several players rather than one top talent.