Exactly 20 years ago, trainer John Shirreffs unexpectedly won the Kentucky Derby with 50-1 long shot Giacomo. Three years ago, Rich Strike — at 80-1 odds — won after beginning Derby Week outside of the field as the first alternate.
Neither horse was better than Baeza at that juncture of their careers.
If Baeza gets in the field — he is sitting at 21 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard — he could deliver Shirreffs' second Kentucky Derby victory.
It wouldn’t be much of an upset at all.