Here’s the truth: All five of the quarterbacks set to be drafted on Thursday won’t become franchise guys. That’s not a slight to anyone in particular, nor can I predict today who’ll make it and who won’t (although I feel pretty good about the first guy).
The numbers bear that out. Some facts:
• Twenty quarterbacks went in the first round between 2011 and ’17. Eight made it to a second deal (one of those eight, by the way, is Blake Bortles). Two more (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota) had fifth-year options picked up. Ten either had their fifth-year options declined or didn’t last long enough for their teams to have made that call.