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FiveThirtyEight Rates CFP Chances for Ohio State, TCU, Alabama

Just a couple days ago, the College Football Playoff picture appeared to be fairly straightforward.

The top four of Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC controlled their own destinies, needing only to win their respective conference championship games to virtually lock up a CFP berth.

Easier said than done.

No. 4 USC lost to No. 11 Utah for the second time this season, 47-24, in the Pac-12 championship game on Friday night. Then No. 10 Kansas State edged No. 3 TCU, 31-28 in overtime at the Big 12 championship game on Saturday afternoon.