As he returned from a scouting trip last Jan. 14, one day after another dispiriting loss dropped the Heat to 11-30, Andy Elisburg, the team's senior vice president and general manager, used a layover to phone his boss, Pat Riley, and tell him it was time for a tough conversation.
"Math," Elisburg remembers warning Riley, "is going to catch us."
The Heat don't tank entire seasons. It is not in the ultra-competitive, borderline militaristic DNA Riley has instilled over two decades. But they aren't dumb, either. They know what the NBA's incentive structure recommends when bad chemistry and injuries undo a season.