Major League Baseball's off season is about to get pretty wild for quite a few teams. Although there is still some incredibly exciting baseball left to be played in these playoffs, one can't help but look at the tasty market for some big name pitchers. The Tampa Bay Rays are certainly trading their lefty ace David Price, while the Detroit Tigers have convincing reasons to dump the guy who is an absolute lock for the American League Cy Young Award, Max Scherzer.
A slew of offers will overwhelm the Rays and Tigers for these elite starters, and the the Texas Rangers are one of those teams that should be looking to deal for Price. Here is a few reasons why they should go after Price, and also a look at what it might take him to haul him in.
Why Trade for Price
1) The Rangers already expect to be huge players at the winter meetings. They have glaring offensive needs and have already stated public interest in both Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann, and Seattle Mariners DH Kendrys Morales. Those two together would be expensive, but this front office has deep pockets and an increasing desire to win now, especially after early disappointing playoff exits in the last two seasons. A productive off season could help to attract Price. Even if doesn't do that directly, adding power bats can't hurt their chances to get Price.
2) The club has both the prospects and cash to get Price to Texas, and keep him there for a long time. Rangers fans always talk about how talented and deep the farm system is. It's time to use that strength as an asset. A majority of the organizations' best prospects are still at class A Hickory, and are a few years away from major league playing time. Jon Daniels is a master at locating and replenishing the talent supply. He has a great reputation for signing standout international players, and just added several quality players from the Caribbean during the year. This team can always reload - so they need to use the talent they have now to their full advantage.
At the end of the day, prospects are just that - prospects. Their future success is absolutely not a guarantee. It is always acceptable to trade unproven players for proven ones, especially for premium positions, like an ace starting pitcher. There are untouchable prospects, sure - for the Rangers, that is likely catcher Jorge Alfaro and second baseman Roughned Odor. They would also love to hold onto right handed starter Luke Jackson, who has electric, overpowering stuff and is dominating in high A Myrtle Beach.
Throughout this process it's critical to keep in mind that the Rangers wouldn't be "selling the farm" for Price. Many fans shy away from a deal like this, because of the fear of depleting the farm system of talent. That is simply won't be the case here. Price will definitely be expensive but the depth of Texas' minor league system is in the upper echelon of the MLB. You have to "give to get."
3) Price has a phenomenal track record for a guy who has pitched in the AL East his entire career. He has a career line of 71-39 with a 3.19 ERA in what has unquestionably been baseball's toughest division over the last five-seven years. That includes a 12-13 record in 2011. That's about as close to an impeccable resume as you can get. In five years in the MLB - he's only been a full-time starter for four - he has already won 19 games or more twice. In two of those four seasons, he's posted a sub 2.80 ERA, with 200+ innings in both of those years. Over his career his strikeout to walk ratio is 3.06. He has a reputation of being one of the premier control pitchers in the game, which is a credit to the the vertical plane of his pitch movement. He makes bats miss near the plate, but still keeps the ball down in the zone. He is difficult to square up on.
Price is also a horse. In his last four years, he's averaged 207.1 innings pitched. That reputation fits right in with Nolan Ryan's philosophy of pitching deep into games.
What Will It Take to Get Him?
First, let's establish Prices' contractual situation. He has been arbitration eligible for the last three seasons, and the Rays have essentially been squeezing every ounce of cheap value out of him. He's been their best pitcher at the lowest price (no pun intended). He is 28 and two years away from free agency. It's a known fact that Tampa will not be able to afford him.
So, if the Rangers traded for him, they would be getting him for two seasons before they would need to decide is he is worthy of a potential $200 million investment. Again, they have the cash to do make that deal happen, but I would want to wait and see on that. Instead just get him to Texas and if he earns a monster payday, then the Rangers will strongly consider it. Remember: WIN NOW mode, especially with several key players - Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Alex Rios not getting any younger.
Now as far as what it will take to satisfy Tampa's astronomical (and rightfully so) demands, the Rangers have some room for versatility in a deal. Here is a suggested trade that almost certainly gets it done. Notr that utility infielder Jurickson Profar is a guarantee to be included in any deal. He is basically a "conversation starter" in any talks with the Rays' front office. There is no way around this.
1) UTL INF Jurickson Profar, RHP Luke Jackson (Class High A Myrtle Beach), 3B Joey Gallo (A Hickory), and SS Luis Sardinas (Class A Hickory) for LHP David Price.
That caliber of package absolutely gets this deal done. I can't imagine Tampa turning that down. With those players they are getting a bit of everything: Profar is still a wonderfully-talented guy who now has had a nice dose of MLB at bats, a high-middle rotation pitcher in Jackson, raw, devastating power from the left side in Gallo and smooth defense and a strong arm at shortstop in Sardinas.
Many might consider this to be too much for Price. But remember, they are still keeping Jorge Alfaro and Roughned Odor, two of their top three prospects. The Rangers might be able to get away with either removing Sardinas from the deal, or switching out Gallo for AAA 3B Yangervis Solarte, who is considered to be far closer to MLB-ready. If they want to keep Jackson, the alternative is likely emerging star lefty Martin Perez, which would be a worse deal for Texas. The goal in acquiring Price is to add to the rotation. Removing a 10-win rookie in a deal doesn't do that.
Jon Daniels should use this kind of package to gauge Tampa's interest, knowing that it likely gets him Price. From there he can add or subtract pieces from the deal and keep checking in with the Rays. They may be able to get him slightly cheaper than this, considering that he will hit free agency in two years, but they will pay a steep price regardless.
With the addition of Price, here is what the Rangers' rotation looks like in 2014.
David Price, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Martin Perez.
That would be the AL's best rotation. Hands down. Add that rotation to the Rangers' expected offensive upgrades, and this team could be right back in the World Series talks next year.
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