As regular readers recall, last week, I unveiled the methodology of another way to think about success in college football. Specifically, I stole from baseball’s Expected Weighted On Base Average to create a metric that considers the change in expected points from any play and the number of successful plays a team runs. Sparing you the gory details (the uninitiated can read about methodology here), I’ll remind you of the basic formula for a weighted expected success rate:
wxSR = sum of (total change in expected points * successful plays)/total plays.
This week, I took a first raw attempt at the data, and I want to unpack that here, briefly.