If you still don’t have a subscription to The Athletic, you’ll be excused for missing a rather fascinating piece from the always-interesting Eno Sarris. Sarris, who leads their developing analytics department, wrote a piece entitled, “Why the A’s might be a lot better (or worse) than their projections.”
In the article, Sarris makes note of the following:
“In baseball terms, if you’re projected to a lower run environment, your record could be more volatile with respect to your projections. You’ll play a lot more one-run games, and one-run games are the biggest source of randomness in baseball.