Baseball America analyzed every pick in the Rule 5 draft and gave Burch Smith, formerly of the Rays, a 90% chance to stick in Kansas City.
“When we saw Burch in September, he was a major league pitcher. Obviously everybody saw him in the fall league and saw what he can do. It’s an upper 90s fastball and it's a plus changeup he’ll use in any count with a solid breaking ball," Royals pro scouting director Gene Watson said.
I’m not going to criticize the Rays too much for doing what they think is right regarding a player’s development and then deciding, with all the information they have, that they don’t want to protect him, but I do wonder if maybe, just maybe, sending guys you might want to sneak through the Rule 5 draft to the AFL is a bad idea.