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Rays constantly fail to live up to their third-order winning percentage

The Rays have posted four straight losing seasons. That is a fact. They finished below 81 wins each of the past four seasons, and in a sense, that’s all that really matters.

But on the other hand, each of the past four offseasons should have given Rays fans some amount of hope heading into the following seasons, because in each of these losing seasons (yes, even 2016) the Rays finished the season over .500 by Baseball Prospectus’ third-order winning percentage. In fact, by BP third-order winning percentage, the Rays have been over .500 every season since 2007, and they have been a playoff-worthy team six of the past 10 years (with added playoff appearances in 2012, 2015, and 2017, and a lost playoff appearance in 2011).