Winning on the road is a tall task in itself, but the level of difficulty ramps up a notch when a team is forced to face two of the top teams in the conference on the road over the course of a week. After losing in heartbreaking fashion last week at Duke, the Orange are placed in an equally tough position on Saturday when they face the Virginia Cavaliers. The No. 12 Virginia (24-5, 15-1 ACC) lead the No. 4 Orange (26-2, 13-2 ACC) in the conference by a game and a half with only a few games remaining in the season.
In previewing the game, you typically look for the key differences that will help one team over the other. The two teams are incredibly similar in a variety of categories, mostly on the defensive side of the ball, which makes it difficult to nitpick when determining who has the edge.
Computers:
The computers seem to think favorably of Virginia, especially because the game will be played in John Paul Jones Arena. The website ncaagamesim.com predicted Virginia to beat Syracuse at home 299 times out of 489 simulations. That number comes out to be a 61.1 percent victory rate for Virginia, which is a very high number considering Syracuse is currently ranked eight spots higher than the Cavaliers. That number falls back into the Orange’s favor when you place the game back in the Carrier Dome with Syracuse winning 15 out of 29 times.
Edge: Virginia
The Hot Team:
The Orange enter Saturday playing their toughest portion of the schedule while playing some of their worst basketball. They have failed to score more than 61 points in any of the past seven games, which is part of the reason they are in a 50-year low offensively. Even with the offensive struggles, they have only lost two games during that seven game stretch, which are the only two losses on the season for the team. They won 25 in a row before narrowly losing to Boston College at home, and then lost in controversial fashion to Duke a few days later. Beating Maryland on the road was a step in the right direction but it didn’t come without some controversy and a close ending.
Virginia is currently on a 12-game winning streak that has featured games against Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and Clemson. They have won their last 10 home games by an average of 15.8 points, and have only lost two home games on the season to teams ranked in the top-15 in the country.
If this game was played in the Carrier Dome I’d give Syracuse the edge but Virginia has just been too tough of a team to beat at home this season.
Edge: Virginia
Coach:
Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches in the nation and is unparalleled for his ability to make in-game adjustments and attack opposing teams weaknesses. His team and his coaching in clutch situations has led Syracuse to the number four ranking in the nation. For example, in the overtime victory over Duke, Boeheim instructed point guard Tyler Ennis to feed the ball to Jerami Grant in the post as he had a huge height advantage over Andre Dawkins.
Tony Bennett has been coaching Virginia since the 2009 season after coaching for Washington State for the previous three seasons. He got Washington State to the NCAA Sweet Sixteen in one of his seasons and has made it to the second round twice during his coaching career. He is known for his excellent knowledge of defense and for coaching his team to wear out opposing offenses with an aggressive style of physical play. One college basketball insider called Bennett “The best coach in the nation, in terms of in-game adjustments.”
Edge: Syracuse
Consensus:
Bets should be placed on this game to see if either team can eclipse 50 points. The Orange are in a bit of a rut and are playing on the road, but this is a game that fits right into their wheelhouse. They’ve been able to win nearly all of the close games they’ve played in and are perfectly comfortable playing at a slow pace, something that Virginia has done throughout the season.
This game will come down to whether the Orange can get some points in transition. If Cooney and Ennis can pressure the top of the key and create easy points for the Orange, Syracuse should be able to escape Virginia with a victory.
Prediction:
Syracuse 57, Virginia 53
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