I’ll confess. Sometimes my “Stanford” personality just gets the better of me. Sometimes I waste hours on an intellectual pursuit—with no particular payout other than conquering a mental challenge. This is one of those times.
I wondered to myself: if the Pac-12 allowed 5-7 teams to go bowling, what would Stanford’s odds be? I did an elaborate calculation that involved scrupulously gathering bowl eligible teams, teams on the bubble, and APR rankings. I considered bowl bans, 13-game seasons, and number of FCS opponents. I topped it off with FPI win probabilities, Monte Carlo simulations, and a probability analysis.