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The Importance of Being Modest (About Projecting Bullpens)

This offseason, the Cardinals went out and signed Andrew Miller. It was a new direction in Cardinals reliever signings — a multi-year contract for an established relief ace. They’d tried almost everything the prior year, from signing Greg Holland to a blowout one year deal to dipping into the bargain bin for Luke Gregerson and Bud Norris. They’d tried trading for Dominic Leone, tried promoting aggressively from within with Jordan Hicks, tried using depth starters from Triple-A in Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon.