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How the Ballon d’Or was won: a statistical breakdown

Barcelona star Lionel Messi won his sixth Ballon d’Or by a historically small margin over Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk. Messi received 686 points to Van Dijk’s 679, a difference that could have been flipped by a single ballot.

The Ballon d’Or voting works as follows: each country has one ballot decided by (almost always one) journalist, in which players are ranked one through five. Players receive six points for being ranked first, four points for second, three points for third, two points for fourth, and one point for fifth. Because the gap was only seven points, a single voter could have flipped the result, as he or she could have added up to six points for Van Dijk while simultaneously subtracting up to six points for Messi.