The StatHawk, Week 1: Regression is not always a naughty word

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY SportsSometimes it is downright encouraging.

If the term "regression" sounds negative to you, you're not the only one. It's often used as an antonym of "progression."

Examples!

"Colin Kaepernick regressed as a passer in 2014."

"The typical espn.com commenter shows unmistakable signs of regression to age 11."

But statistically speaking, regression has a different, far more neutral connotation. When we talk about "regression to the mean," what that means is outliers will likely get drowned over time by the ocean of more typical events to follow. Think of it this way: if a quarterback throws into double coverage ten times, and gives up nine interceptions, that's bad for him,…