Sports takedom is a firehose of malarkey. Truly just a deluge of hot air, hogwash, and horsefeathers. Hokum and hooey. You know, bullshit. I’ve been doing this semi-professionally for a year now, and while I try to be more rigorous than your replacement-level hucksters, I really don’t have a good sense of whether I have any idea what I’m talking about when, for instance, I say that I believe in Jarred Kelenic.
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s great pop-science book Superforecasting has some advice about this. They say that a lot of good predictionistas have these things in common:
- They make specific, falsifiable predictions.