McCovey Chronicles · Jul 24, 2018
The Giants’ offense has single-handedly sunk their playoff odds
You may remember the hubbub in the offseason about the Giants’ PECOTA projection, which gave them an 84-78 record and chance to make the postseason. The latest projections have the Giants finishing with 82 wins and, therefore, not making the postseason.
Why is that? It turns out (stage whisper) THE GIANTS CAN’T SCORE RUNS. If you just take their average runs per game (4.08) and multiply it by the remaining games (61), you get 248.8, or 249 runs. These updated PECOTA standings give them a little bit more help:
Before the season, the system projected 700 runs scored for the Giants. 4.08 runs per game over the final 61 gets them 661 and if you add PECOTA’s numbers instead it’s 671.