Football is a violent game that features more variance and luck than most are willing to admit. The San Francisco 49ers had two of the most costly plays in the game go against them.
After moving the ball efficiently on the first drive, Christian McCaffrey — a player who received first-place votes in the MVP ballot — coughed up the ball for the first time in nearly a quarter of a year. McCaffrey had been as reliable as anybody in the NFL all season. But on 1st & 10, the 49ers lost almost a touchdown in EPA, and their win probability went down by almost 16 percentage points.