The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX). A majority of spread tickets are on Patrick Mahomes & Co.
Bookmakers and the public favor the Chiefs but not The Action Network’s model, which uses player and team statistics to simulate the Super Bowl 10,000 times.
According to the math, the 49ers, not the Chiefs, should be favored. On average, our simulations have Kyle Shanahan’s team winning by 0.4 points.
The numbers suggest the 49ers should be favored, but can we trust the simulations?
Whenever there was at least a one-point difference between The Action Network’s simulations and the betting line this season, like with the 49ers, the model went 81-59-1 (57.