This is the part the San Diego Padres never want to admit lives inside every July dice roll: the downside. You talk yourself into upside, you picture the version of Nestor Cortes that diced the AL East with angle, tempo, and carry at the letters, and you convince yourself a change of scenery plus a clean bill of health can buy you postseason outs. The math looks fine on the whiteboard. Then September shows up with a medical update that turns the whole bet into a cautionary slide for next year’s front office meetings.
Because here’s where the story actually lands.