San Diego Padres fans looking for a loud, dramatic Manny Machado outlook — a sudden decline warning, probably won’t find it in the early 2026 projection models. What they will find is the most comforting thing a star can be in a chaotic roster-building era: predictable.
The early 2026 line floating around for Machado is basically “more of the same,” and that’s not an insult. The Steamer projection has him at 135 games, 595 plate appearances, 26 homers, a .268/.329/.465 slash, a 122 wRC+, and 3.3 WAR. Nothing there screams reinvention. Nothing screams collapse. It reads like a dependable middle-of-the-order engine doing exactly what the Padres need him to do.