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What Is the “Gambler’s Fallacy” and How Does It Apply to Poker?

You’re walking through a casino, past the roulette wheels. As has become common in modern casinos, each wheel has a prominent electronic display board showing the results of recent spins. Glancing at these as you stroll past, you notice that one wheel has hit on a red number the last nine times in a row.

Should you:

  • (A) Pull $100 out of your wallet and bet on black, because it’s clear that black is overdue to hit.
  • (B) Pull $100 out of your wallet and bet on red, because it’s clear that the wheel is in the middle of a long streak of hitting red.