PokerNews · May 25, 2015
What Is the “Gambler’s Fallacy” and How Does It Apply to Poker?
Related TournamentsYou’re walking through a casino, past the roulette wheels. As has become common in modern casinos, each wheel has a prominent electronic display board showing the results of recent spins. Glancing at these as you stroll past, you notice that one wheel has hit on a red number the last nine times in a row.
Should you:
(A) Pull $100 out of your wallet and bet on black, because it’s clear that black is overdue to hit.
(B) Pull $100 out of your wallet and bet on red, because it’s clear that the wheel is in the middle of a long streak of hitting red.
(C) Keep walking, because betting on roulette carries an expectation of loss no matter what the previous several results have been.