ESPN doesn’t love T.J. Watt’s chances of bouncing back from his quiet 2024 finish. Relying on its analytics model to project sack totals for the NFL’s top pass rushers, Watt isn’t expected to surpass last year’s total. The site’s algorithm believes he’ll finish with just 10.7 sacks, which would be his lowest total in a non-injury season since his rookie year.
There is one important caveat. The model projects on the conservative side for all pass rushers. Not just Watt. His total is fifth-best league-wide with leader Aidan Hutchinson projected to finish with just 12.2. To put that in perspective, the last time 12 or fewer sacks led the NFL was the strike-shortened 1982 season when Doug Martin led with 11.