After diving deep into success rates, I wanted to continue examining important stats that many follow. Up today is TOX, considering the strong correlation to winning since the stat was constructed by Brian Billick. The goal in this article is to examine the 2021 season from a few angles using Billick’s measurements, see how the results stack up to the ultimate goal of winning, and see if tweaking the stat could possibly give us an even more predictive and beneficial data point moving forward.
Let’s start with viewing explosive plays alone, which are a pass or run of 20 yards or more, with numbers for offense and defense on the plot below:
Of the nine teams on the top right, seven made the postseason (77.