Today I wanted to continue evaluating the successful play stat for NFL offenses that many follow, including us here at Steelers Depot. The goal for today is to look at the passing game using the rates many use currently, see how the results stack up to the ultimate goal of winning, and see if tweaking the stat could possibly give us a more predictive and beneficial data point moving forward.
I provided and tracked success rates through the season, so we will start with those measures. Here are successful play rates defined (with spikes, kneel downs, and aborted/penalty plays excluded) from nflfastR:
- First Down Success = A gain of six yards or more, or at least 40% of the needed yardage.