Williams: What’s the Worst That Could Happen?

One of the things I like about the FanGraphs ZiPS projections this year is the inclusion of the 20th and 80th percentile estimates.

The typical projections each year give the 50th percentile estimate. Players can perform above and below these projections, and my ZiPS analysis each year tries to explain where I see the potential for players to exceed or fall short of simulations.

The 80th/20th Percentiles allow us to see what ZiPS is projecting in those simulations where the player is exceeding or falling short of his average. This is especially helpful, because it allows you to dream about some players, while isolating where the concerns are on the roster.

I wanted to focus on the range of…