First, the good news.
Entering their huge three-game series against Gabe Kapler’s Giants at Citizens Bank Park this week, the Phillies are 67-57 and hold a two-game lead over San Francisco for the No. 1 wild card spot in the National League, with a 2.5 game lead over the Cubs, who hold spot No. 3. According to Baseball Reference, they have a 90.1% chance of reaching the playoffs and Fangraphs has them at 81.4%, 4th-best in the NL (Braves, Dodgers, Brewers).
They are 19-16 since the All-Star Break, one of only two teams in the wild card hunt with a winning record.